Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Obama by the numbers, and a solid performance by McCain

Again, our numbers show Sen. Barrack Obama the technical winner over Sen. John McCain in the third and final presidential debate conducted by Bob Schieffer of CBS News at Hofstra University in New York.

Sen. Obama scored a total of 74 points over Sen. McCain, 62 points.

We use a subjective analysis, based on the ideas the candidates share, their ability to communicate simply and clearly, and their passion -- essentially, whether the ideas they expressed were true, emotional, and heartfelt, or whether they were coldly crafted in the campaign war room.

In essence, you score well if you have a clear idea, you express it clearly and coherently, and you believe it. Your answer is everything. If you do well, we are single-mindedly focused your message. We understand it. We aren't watching you trying to fabricate or manufacture a response.

We scored each candidate's principal answer (on a scale of 1-5, five being best), and we scored each follow-up answer (on a scale of 1-3, three being best).

Here's what we saw and assessed:

Why is your economic recovery plan better?
Obama 10
McCain 9

What new spending will you postpone or delay?
Obama 10
McCain 6

You pledged to take the high road, but why is your campaign nasty?
Obama 11
McCain 10

Why are we better off with your vice presidential candidate?
McCain 8
Obama 7

By how much will you reduce our dependence on foreign oil in your first term?
McCain 7
Obama 7

How do you balance controlling health care costs vs. expanding coverage?
Obama 8
McCain 4

Will you nominate a Supreme Court justice who disagrees with you?
Obama 8
McCain 7

We spend more per capita on education, but why do we trail most countries in the world on outcomes?
Obama 8
McCain 6

Closing statement
Obama 5
McCain 5


This was a debate about domestic affairs. Therefore, no discussion on foreign affairs, typically a strength for Sen. McCain.

In an additional analysis, based on what drives or motivates people (or presidential candidates) to do what they do, and express themselves the way they do, Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain were evenly matched on 10 out of a total of 16 criteria.

Where they differed:

Obama more curious, more interested in the search for truth.

Obama more interested in people, and how they live and connect.

Obama more interested in families.

Obama more reflective of peace and tranquility.

McCain more competitive.

McCain more energetic, and energized (although restrained).


Still, in this debate, no coherent vision for America expressed by either candidate.

We know how they compete against each other. We know how they square off on the issues. We have a sense of what they supported and voted for in the Congress. We know where they stand on health care, the economy, social issues, energy, education.

But how would you, as a voter, definitively -- and positively -- describe their vision for the America they want to build, based on what they said tonight?

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Obama wins (by a mile)

Actually, by a significant mile.

In the subjective way we evaluate answers, Sen. Barrack Obama won the second presidential debate over Sen. John McCain:

Sen. Obama scored a total of 75 points, over Sen. McCain's 52 points, in the debate moderated by Tom Brokaw of NBC News, at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee.

We use a subjective analysis, based on the ideas the candidates share, their ability to communicate simply and clearly, and their passion -- essentially, whether the ideas they expressed were true, emotional, and heartfelt, or whether they were coldly crafted in the campaign war room.

In essence, you score well if you have a clear idea, you express it clearly and coherently, and you believe it. Your answer is everything. If you do well, we are single-mindedly focused your message. We understand it. We aren't watching you trying to fabricate or manufacture a response.

We scored each candidate's principal answer (on a scale of 1-5, five being best), and we scored each follow-up answer (on a scale of 1-3, three being best).

Here's what we saw and assessed:

Fastest way to help people in the economic crisis?
Obama 5
McCain 4

What helps ordinary people most?
Obama 7
McCain 1

Can we trust either of you?
Obama 7
McCain 5

What must we sacrifice today for the future?
Obama 7
McCain 5

What about entitlements, social security and medicare?
Obama 5
McCain 1

What do we do about the environment and green jobs?
Obama 5
McCain 1

Is health care a commodity?
Obama 8
McCain 4

America as a peacemaker in the world?
Obama 8
McCain 5

Should we respect Pakistan's sovereignty?
Obama 8
McCain 5

Your Afghanistan plan?
Obama 3
McCain 3

Do we pressure Russia on humanitarian issues?
McCain 8
Obama 3

What happens if Iran attacks Israel?
McCain 5
Obama 4

What don't you know, and how will you learn it?
Obama 5
McCain 5

Sen. Obama's victory came from clear ideas, coherently expressed, naturally, and with conviction.

Sen. McCain's answers were somewhat unclear, and somewhat rambling. His conviction and passion, mostly solid and even, was diminished by sharing multiple talking points in a single answer, not coherently linked.

On foreign issues, however, Sen. McCain found his voice. He scored well, providing clear, coherent ideas, expressed with clarity and conviction.

Sen. Obama lacked those qualities in two of his foreign affairs answers.

Again, the tenor and tone of the debate was about fixing things that are wrong, dealing with tactical issues, and battling each other.

The real question remains. Who has the best vision for America?

Ultimately, that will be the test.